Leeds vs Brentford: Bielsa’s High-Energy Machine Faces Struggling Bees
Marcelo Bielsa’s Leeds United may not be producing the free-flowing football of last season, but their trademark intensity remains intact. Recent data from Baji performance analytics team shows Leeds still rank among the Premier League’s top three teams for distance covered per match (114.3km avg), with their sprint statistics actually improving slightly from last campaign.
Brentford’s defensive woes have been magnified since goalkeeper David Raya’s injury. Replacement Álvaro Fernández has struggled to command his area, with the Bees conceding 2.1 expected goals per game since his introduction – third worst in the league behind only Everton and Manchester United.
Baji tactical analyst Mark Williams notes: “Leeds’ pressing triggers will target Fernández’s distribution. Without Raya’s sweeping ability, Brentford’s build-up play becomes predictable – exactly what Bielsa’s system feasts on.”
Prediction: Leeds 1-0 Brentford
Key Stat: Leeds have won 4 of their last 5 home games against newly-promoted sides
Manchester United’s Rangnick Revolution Begins
The Ralf Rangnick era begins at Old Trafford with Crystal Palace the first test for German’s high-octane philosophy. While United’s performances haven’t yet matched results (2 wins, 1 draw under interim boss Michael Carrick), Baji sources indicate Rangnick has already implemented his signature 4-2-2-2 system in training.
Palace arrive vulnerable – missing defensive linchpin Joachim Andersen and midfield engine James McArthur. Their first-half struggles are particularly concerning: failing to score in 11 of 14 opening periods this season.
“Rangnick’s teams typically start fast,” observes Baji Bundesliga correspondent Lisa Müller. “His Leipzig side scored 42% of their goals in first halves last season. United at HT looks a smart play.”
Rangnick’s pressing system could overwhelm Palace’s depleted midfield
Prediction: Manchester United 2-0 Crystal Palace
Betting Tip: United to lead at halftime (11/10)
Conte’s Spurs Primed for Norwich Rout
Tottenham’s transformation under Antonio Conte continues to gain momentum. Thursday’s 2-0 win over Brentford saw Spurs register their highest xG (2.24) since September, with the Italian’s 3-4-3 system beginning to click.
Norwich’s midweek collapse at Newcastle (managing just 0.7 xG against 10 men) suggests they’re ill-equipped to handle Spurs’ wing-back overloads. The Canaries have lost 9 of their last 10 away London derbies, conceding 2+ goals in each defeat.
Baji Championship expert notes: “Dean Smith hasn’t fixed Norwich’s defensive fragility. They’ve faced the most shots (227) and second-most shots on target (75) in the league.”
Prediction: Tottenham 2-0 Norwich
Key Matchup: Son Heung-min vs Brandon Williams (Norwich LB has been dribbled past 2.3 times per game)
Villa’s Set-Piece Edge Against Leicester’s Defensive Disaster
Leicester’s defensive collapse has become alarming – no clean sheets in 13 games (conceding 25 goals), their worst run since 2002. Brendan Rodgers’ zonal marking system has been particularly vulnerable, conceding 7 set-piece goals already.
Steven Gerrard has made Villa dangerous from dead balls, with Tyrone Mings emerging as a real threat. The England defender has averaged 1.2 headed attempts per game since Gerrard’s arrival, scoring against Brighton.
“Leicester’s set-piece xG against is league-worst,” warns Baji set-piece analyst. “Mings at 11/2 for a headed shot on target is tremendous value.”
Prediction: Aston Villa 2-1 Leicester
Betting Tip: Tyrone Mings headed shot on target (11/2)
Benitez’s Last Stand Against Resurgent Arsenal
Everton’s crisis deepens – winless in 8, with the league’s worst xGA (2.10 per game) during that span. Rafa Benítez’s defensive structure has collapsed, while the continued absence of Dominic Calvert-Lewin leaves them blunt in attack.
Arsenal, despite recent away struggles, have kept clean sheets in 6 of 8 games against non-“Big Six” opponents. With Ben White and Gabriel forming a solid partnership, the Gunners are primed to exploit Everton’s lack of cutting edge.
Baji Merseyside correspondent warns: “Goodison Park will turn toxic if Everton start poorly. This feels like a defining moment for Benítez’s tenure.”
Prediction: Everton 0-1 Arsenal
Key Stat: Arsenal have won 5 straight Monday night fixtures
